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EVENT EXPERT A EXPERT B EXPERT C SIGNIFICANCE
1 = Minor
5 = Major
First consumer Dolby EX products go on sale Q4 1999 Q4 1999 Q4 1999 1
High-resolution, multi-channel digital audio output Q4 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 4
on DVD-A and SACD players (IEEE1394 or Universal I2S)
C: Important to achieving formats’ sonic potential.
Electronic cinema (digital video projection in theaters) exhibited in ten cities Q2 2003 Q2 2000 Q4 2002 2
Digital download kiosks appear in music-retail stores Q1 2000 Q1 2000 Q3 1999 3
C: Any kiosk can download any title at any time; no more out-of-print
music, no more out-of-stock stores.
Hardware to receive HDTV satellite broadcasts nationally available Q3 1999 Q4 1999 Q4 1999 3
A: Already happened with Unity Motion; what’s important is when someone
will start broadcasting continuous HD movies like HBO. That will also
happen this year by DirecTV.
Availability of 20 HDTV channels broadcasting continuously Q4 2001 Q1 2001 Q2 2002 4
B: But will there be anything to watch?
Plasma displays available below $10,000 Q3 2000 Q1 2000 Q1 2000 2
A: It will be important when they fall below $3000.
Multi-channel DVD-A and SACD titles available (>20 titles) Q3 2000 Q2 2000 Q4 2000 3
B: Don’t think we’ll ever see multi-channel SACD; Q2 2000 for
DVD-A (Expert C disagrees).
C: Multi-channel editing infrastructure not yet in place; two-channel SACD
set for September 1999 launch with 50 - 60 titles.
Universal (DVD-V, DVD-Audio, CD, SACD) players available Q4 2000 Q4 1999 Q4 1999 3
B: Important for the ultimate market success of high-quality
multi-channel music recordings.
C: Matsushita (Panasonic) will launch two Universal players this fall,
probably without SACD playback.
Controllers and receivers with IEEE1394 or Universal I2S input go on sale Q4 2003 Q4 2000 Q4 2001 3
Next generation (beyond Dolby Digital) audio 2002 2003 2005 5
A: DD and DTS are available today, and that is all that is used on film.
I don’t expect to see SDDS or 6-channel DD on DVD ever.
B: One of the most important things on the list; high fidelity for film.
C: Would require a format revolution such as HD DVD.
Stand-alone consumer-recordable DVD available Q4 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2002 5
A: Most important thing on list. This will begin the replacement of
VHS tape.
C: Copyright issues could delay introduction.
Portable music players using removable memory-card technology available Q3 2001 Q4 1999 Q2 2000 2
Digital HD VHS available Q4 1999 Q4 2000 Q4 2000 1
B: Provided recordable DVD makes it to market, VHS’ days are numbered.
IEEE1394 connections become available for HDTV Q3 2000 Q2 2001 Q2 2001 1
Ten million DVD players sold in North America Q1 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2001 3
C: The benchmark level at which a format is considered “mass-market”;
a fait accompli.
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