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Simple Moving Average
• X = moving average.
• m = number of elements in moving average.
•
•
•etc.
Seasonal Variation Factors Based on a Centered Moving Average
• X
c
= centered moving average
• m = number of elements in the centered moving average.
•
• SV = Seasonal variation factor.
• x
i
= value of the ith data point.
• i = centered moving average of the ith data point.
•
Gompertz Curve Trend Analysis
• y = ca
(bx)
•where x, y, a, b, and c are positive.
•
X
1
X
1
X
2
X
3
X+
nmm
++
m
-------------------------------------------------------=
...x
m
X
2
X
1
X
2
X
3
X+
nmm
1++ +
m
-----------------------------------------------------------------=
...x
m
X
c
X
1
2
------ X
2
X
3
X
MM
++()
X
m
1+
2
-----------------++
m
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------=
...x
m
SV
X
i
X
i
-----=
b
S
3
S
2
–
S
2
S
1
–
-------------------
1
n
---
=
D
t
S
t
1a–()
α
----------------- T
t
+=