xvi
About the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
About the Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
Text Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
Modeling in VB.NET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318
22 Specification Search 319
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
About the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
About the Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
Specification Search with Few Optional Arrows. . . . . . . . . . . . . 320
Specifying the Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 320
Selecting Program Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322
Performing the Specification Search . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
Viewing Generated Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
Viewing Parameter Estimates for a Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325
Using BCC to Compare Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 326
Viewing the Akaike Weights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327
Using BIC to Compare Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 328
Using Bayes Factors to Compare Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
Rescaling the Bayes Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
Examining the Short List of Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332
Viewing a Scatterplot of Fit and Complexity. . . . . . . . . . . . . 333
Adjusting the Line Representing Constant Fit . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
Viewing the Line Representing Constant C – df. . . . . . . . . . . 336
Adjusting the Line Representing Constant C – df . . . . . . . . . . 337
Viewing Other Lines Representing Constant Fit. . . . . . . . . . . 338
Viewing the Best-Fit Graph for C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338
Viewing the Best-Fit Graph for Other Fit Measures . . . . . . . . 339
Viewing the Scree Plot for C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340
Viewing the Scree Plot for Other Fit Measures . . . . . . . . . . . 342
Specification Search with Many Optional Arrows. . . . . . . . . . . . 344
Specifying the Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
Making Some Arrows Optional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
Setting Options to Their Defaults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345