Filter
Top Products
330
Example 22
In the table of fit measures, the column that was labeled BIC
0
is now labeled BIC
p
and
contains Bayes factors scaled so that they sum to 1.
With equal prior probabilities for the models and using a particular prior distribution
of the parameters of each separate model (Raftery, 1995; Schwarz, 1978), BIC
p
values
are approximate posterior probabilities. Model 7 is the correct model with probability
0.860. One can be 99% sure that the correct model is among Models 7, 6, and 8 (0.860
+ 0.069 + 0.065 = 0.99). The p subscript is a reminder that BIC
p
values can be
interpreted as probabilities.