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Example 26
At this point, we have 22,501 analysis samples, although the display was most recently
updated at the 22,500
th
sample. The largest C.S. is 1.0012, which is below the 1.002
criterion that indicates acceptable convergence. Reflecting the satisfactory
convergence, Amos now displays a happy face . Gelman et al. (2004) suggest that,
for many analyses, values of 1.10 or smaller are sufficient. The default criterion of
1.002 is conservative. Judging that the MCMC chain has converged by this criterion
does not mean that the summary table will stop changing. The summary table will
continue to change as long as the MCMC algorithm keeps running. As the overall C.S.
value on the toolbar approaches 1.000, however, there is not much more precision to
be gained by taking additional samples, so we might as well stop.
Diagnostic Plots
In addition to the C.S. value, Amos offers several plots that can help you check
convergence of the Bayesian MCMC method. To view these plots:
E From the menus, choose View > Posterior.
Amos displays the Posterior dialog box.