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Specification Search
E
In the Specification Search window, click the column heading BIC
0
.
The table is now sorted according to BIC so that the best model according to BIC (that
is, the model with the smallest BIC) is at the top of the list.
Model 7, with the smallest BIC, is the model with the highest approximate posterior
probability (using equal prior probabilities for the models and using a particular prior
distribution for the parameters of each separate model). Raftery (1995) suggests the
following interpretation of BIC
0
values in judging the evidence for Model 7 against a
competing model:
Using these guidelines, you have positive evidence against Models 6 and 8, and very
strong evidence against all of the other models as compared to Model 7.
Using Bayes Factors to Compare Models
E On the Current results tab of the Options dialog box, select Akaike weights / Bayes factors
(sum = 1)
in the BCC, AIC, BIC group.
BIC
0
Raftery (1995) interpretation
0 – 2 Weak
2 – 6 Positive
6 – 10 Strong
>10 Very strong